At a minimum, the sudden ceremonial purge of Russia’s Air Force suggests that the Russian Air Force is unreliable operationally, and, potentially, politically.Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders. With rumors of intergovernmental tension and increasing insubordination in the mid-level officer corps, the abrupt cut of Russia’s Air Force fly-over-despite several successful practice-runs under far worse weather-is notable. And Putin, surrounded by aging veterans, would be an unmissable target. An individual pilot with a grudge, at the controls of a high-performance jet, could easily take matters into his own hands, plowing the aircraft into the big, easily identified reviewing stand before anybody could react. The cockpit is one of the few places where Russian security agents are absent. While threats on the ground can be managed by trusted security forces, aircraft are kinetic instruments, piloted by individuals. In 2018, Iranian militants, dressed in military uniforms, opened fire during a military parade commemorating the 1980s war with Iraq, shooting into the VIP reviewing stand. In 1981, Egypt’s president, Anwar Sadat, celebrating Egypt’s successful attack on the Suez Canal, was shot and killed in the midst of the military pageantry. Putin is certainly aware that military “victory” parades are dangerous places for unstable and contested regimes. The Real Storm Clouds: Moscow’s Security Fears With reports that fly-overs were cancelled at a number of other Russian Victory parades, critical supply shortages or some other systemic failure cannot be discounted.
And with the fuel-hungry fighter set to represent more than a quarter of the Moscow’s parade aircraft, any supply shortage would have been difficult to mask. But, under less-than-perfect conditions, if the war is sucking away Russia’s best pilots, the second stringers on parade fly-over duty may not have been quite ready to strut their ragged gear and skills before a global audience.įuel may have been a problem too. Russian aircraft have conducted ceremonial flights in far worse conditions. Though conditions were windy, the weather appeared to be perfectly fine for a fly-by. Russian pilots may be facing strain as well, and the weather may, simply, have been too much for them. Shutting the entire parade down over “weather” concerns may have been far easier an option. Putin’s hold on power may turn on the respect others offer to Russia’s strategic warfighters, and a demonstration of unreliability may have been too much to bear. Alternatively, the aircraft’s abrupt disappearance might suggest that Russia’s vaunted strategic forces are in disarray. Some might seize on the idea that Russia was ramping down their dangerous rhetoric about nuclear war-something that Putting may not want. Had the parade gone forward without the “doomsday” headliner, the aircraft’s absence would have been widely noted and widely discussed. But with only three copies still flying, the 35-year-old derivation of the IL-86 passenger aircraft had little backup in the event the designated parade aircraft broke down.
Outside of the “Z” formation flight, the show’s central-and most provocative-attraction was originally to be filled by the Ilyushin IL-80 “Maxdome” command and control aircraft, a “doomsday” plane that ensures Russian leaders remain in contact with their nuclear arsenal during a war. After showing 4 Mig-29s in previous victory parades, Russia was set to use 16 Mig-29s, sending the older fighters out to conduct a “Z” pattern fly-by. Instead, the Moscow parade was set to celebrate Russia’s creaky fleet of Mikoyan Mig-29 fighter jets. Sukhoi Su-30 Flankers and Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers, facing heavy losses and high demand, were not going to be represented in the Red Square parade, either. The story is no better for Russia’s fixed-wing aircraft. Russia’s helicopter fleet is taking a steady beating, and given battlefield attrition, Moscow parade planners expected to use no more than 15 helicopters, a humiliating reduction from a big contingent of 23 choppers just a year ago. It is no secret that Russia’s Air Force is crumbling under the weight of sustained combat operations. The Moscow fly-over, had it occurred, would have been an embarrassment.
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